بررسی اثر سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم بر مکان یابی کشت پاییزه‌ی چغندرقند (مطالعه موردی:استان خراسان جنوبی)

نوع مقاله: کامل علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران.

چکیده

با توجه به اثر پدیده­ی تغییر اقلیم بر پارامترهای اقلیمی مانند دما و بارندگی و اثر متقابل این تغییرات بر پارامترهای فیزیولوژی گیاهی به ویژه درجه روزهای رشد (GDD) و شاخص قابلیت تولید زیست توده (CBPI)، با بررسی این شاخص­ها می­توان، مکان مناسب کشت محصولات را تعیین نمود. این مطالعه با هدف بررسی اثر سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم B1 و A2، بر تعیین مکان مناسب کشت چغندرقند پاییزه در استان خراسان جنوبی با استفاده از پیش­بینی پارامترهای اقلیمی وبا به کارگیری نرم‌افزار LARS-WG تحت مدل گردش عمومی HADCM3 و روش وزن­دهی ANP براساس پارامترهای اقلیمی، فیزیولوژی گیاهی، هیدروژئولوژی و توپوگرافی،در محیط نرم‌افزار ARC GIS 9.3 در دوره­ی کشت آن در سال 1396-1397 میلادی انجام گردید. نتایج نشان داد که به طور کلی در هر دو سناریو اکثر مناطق استان جزء مکان‌های نامناسب جهت کشت پاییزه چغندرقند محسوب می‌گردند به‌گونه­ای که 72/81 درصد از مساحت کل استان در سناریوی A2 و 71/13 درصد در سناریوی B1 مناسب کشت نمی­باشند و تنها 24/41، 2/69 و 0/08 درصد سطح استان در سناریوی A2و همچنین 36/25، 45/3 و 05/0 درصد در سناریوی B1 به ترتیب جزء مناطق متوسط، مناسب و بسیار مناسب از لحاظ کشت برآورد گردید. همچنین بررسی روند نتایج به دست آمده از نقشه­ی نهایی نشان داد که سناریوی A2 و B1 در آینده­ی نزدیک (2030-2011)، به طور تقریبی از دقت یکسانی بر مکان یابی کشت پاییزه چغندرقند در استان خراسان جنوبی برخوردار می‌باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Study of the climate change scenarios effect on locating of autumn-sown sugar beet (case study: south Khorasan rovince)

نویسندگان [English]

  • F. Poursalehi 1
  • A. Shahidi 2
  • A. Khasheisiuki 2
1 PhD Student Department of Water Engineering. University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Considering the effect of climate change on climatic parameters such as temperature and rainfall as well as interaction of these parameters on plant physiology characteristics especially growing degree days (GDD) and capability of biomass production index (CBPI), the suitable location for crop cultivation can be determined by examining these indices. This study was performed to evaluate the effects of climate change scenarios B1 and A2 on determination of the appropriate location for autumn-sown sugar beet in South Khorasan province via the climatic parameters prediction using LARS-WG software under general circulation model HadCM3 and AHP weighting method based on climate parameters, plant physiology, hydrogeology, and topography, in ARC GIS 9.3 software during cultivation period of 2016-2017. Results showed that in general in both scenarios the majority of areas of the province are inappropriate for autumn-sown sugar beet cultivation so that based on the A2 and B1 scenarios, 72.81and 71.13% of the total area of the province are not suitable for cultivation, respectively and only 24.41, 2.69 and 0.08% of the province area based on the A2 scenario and also 25.36, 3.45 and 0.05% based on B1 the scenario were determined as medium, suitable, and very suitable in terms of cultivation. Also results of the final map showed that A2 and B1 scenarios in the near future (2011-2030), approximately have the same accuracy for locating the suitable area for sugar beet cultivation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Growing Degree Days (GDD)
  • capability of biomass production index (CBPI)
  • LARS-WG software
  • HADCM3 model
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